Now is the time to test "President Joe Biden


Friends, now is the time to test. ”In his inaugural address on Wednesday, the new president of the United States, Joe Biden, sounded the warning while addressing the major challenges before him one by one.

He concludes that list of challenges with "America's Role in the World." Mr. The toughest questions in Biden's test will come from the Middle East.

Many of those who have been in charge of Joe Biden's diplomacy and foreign affairs have been in the Obama administration. Looking at the problems they have not been able to solve in their time, they will see that the reality has changed a lot in the last four years.

The biggest shock they will eat is when you see that many of the policies they have formulated have disappeared or taken on a complex look. But many again think that opportunities have been created in this new reality.

People in the new administration understand the flaws in the Obama administration's policy in the Middle East," said Kim Ghatas, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States.

The Biden administration may be moving in a new direction because it has learned from its mistakes in the past. Moreover, the Middle East is very different now than it was four years ago, "said Ms Ghatas, who recently wrote a book on the Saudi-Iranian enmity called the Black Web.

Iran on the first page of the file

Iran is at the top of the new US administration's foreign policy file.

The deal is now hanging in the balance after Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the historic multilateral deal initiated by the Obama administration to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons in 2015. Can tear at any time.

At the same time, one of the goals of the Biden government is to end the ongoing bloody civil war in Yemen, although Barack Obama initially supported the war in Yemen to appease angry Saudi Arabia over the deal with Iran.

President Trump went to Saudi Arabia on his first foreign trip with power.

During that visit, he signed a 110 billion arms deal, the largest in U.S. history.

From then on, unquestioning allegiance to Saudi Arabia and the policy of putting as much pressure on Iran as possible began. Following that policy, a new alliance has recently been formed between Israel and the Gulf Arab states.

Some of the people who were in the Obama administration now have a very active role to play. This is the most important thing for the Middle East now, ”said Hasan Hassan. He is the editor of Newsline, a Middle East magazine.

The Arab world thought that without American leadership, they could redraw the map of the region on their own. But after five years of trying, they now realize that their power is limited to Libya, Iran and even Qatar, a small country.

The beginning of a new relationship with old allies is at the beginning of the priorities of the new US administration. New Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: "It is important to start talking to our allies in the region from the beginning to strengthen our relationship with them. These allies include the Gulf states as well as Israel.

During the four-hour hearing, he repeatedly raised the issue of Iran.

Mr. Blinken - who has long been Mr. Obama and Mr. He has served as a close ally of Biden, who has said that in addition to its nuclear program, Iran's "destabilizing activities" and the control of its long-range missile program require a new solution. Western countries have the same opinion.

But the Biden administration does not want to abandon the 2015 deal on Iran's nuclear program - which is seen as a rare achievement in multilateral diplomacy.

If you look at Biden's foreign policy, nuclear disarmament and the people in charge of the economy, many of them were directly involved in the formulation and implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran," said Eli Geranmaye, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations in the Middle East and North Africa. Deputy Director.

Both the Biden camp and the Iranian leadership agree that all parties to the agreement must work together to ensure full implementation of the agreement. And they need to do it faster.

Since Donald Trump's exit from the deal in 2018 and the imposition of all-round sanctions on Iran, Tehran has been slowly moving away from its commitment to the nuclear deal.

Recently, Tehran said it would increase its uranium enrichment levels, which the United States and European countries are concerned about.

Iranian leaders, however, have repeatedly said that if the United States fulfills its promises, it will follow suit.

Iran wants to lift all sanctions imposed by President Trump. At the same time, in the last four years, Iran's confidence in establishing relations with Western countries has waned.

The Biden administration may also face excuses from within the country.

The newly elected Congress, which now includes many foreign policy veterans, is seeking greater views on foreign policy. Anti-Iranian people are admitted to the Congress.

Khashoggi and Saudi Arabia

In addition to Iran, the Biden administration will look at other issues in the Middle East: ending the war in Yemen, the Israeli-Arab peace agreement, human rights in Saudi Arabia, persecution of dissidents, and the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

But the impact of the deal with Iran will be felt on these issues as well.

Biden, who was appointed director of his national intelligence service, was asked during a hearing in Congress whether he would stop the Trump administration's "illegal activities" and provide a full report to Congress on the killing of journalist Khashoggi.

In response, Avril Haynes said, "Yes, Senator, of course. We will follow the law. "

According to intelligence sources, the CIA has strong evidence that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. The Saudi prince, however, has always denied the allegations.

But can Biden punish the Saudi prince with this?

The Americans should remove the prince from their suspicions because there is no specific evidence," Ali Shihabi, a Saudi writer and analyst, told the BBC.

Whether it is the CIA or the Pentagon or the State Department, they need to understand the fact that Saudi Arabia is very important to the United States. They need Saudi Arabia to do anything in the Middle East.

However, there is a possibility of consensus between Saudi and American policies on many issues. For example, the bloody war in Yemen is over. But like so many other issues in the Middle East, there is no easy solution to this problem.

Closing military cooperation is not easy for Saudi Arabia, "said Peter Salisbury, a Yemen expert at the International Crisis Group.

If the United States wants peace there, they need to be more diplomatic.

Many unpleasant issues will come up in that diplomatic activity, especially when the Biden administration has put human rights on their agenda.

That means dealing with complex and unpleasant situations when speaking from Riyadh to Tehran, Cairo or elsewhere.

Many will keep an eye on whether these talks are just empty words or whether America will give importance to the implementation of these.

The new reality of the Middle East

But even with the new policy, Biden will have to follow in the footsteps of many of his predecessors.

For example, Donald Trump's so-called Abraham Agreement, which is an agreement between Israel and several Arab countries on diplomatic relations, is being praised in various quarters. Mr. Biden also congratulated on this.

But the new foreign minister. "The terms of those agreements need to be thoroughly analyzed," Blinken said.

He pointed to the sale of arms to the UAE or Morocco's commitment to sovereignty in the disputed Western Sahara region.

Joe Biden, who is concerned about the resurgence of extremism in his own country, must also look at the Iraq, Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, al Qaeda and the continued activities of the Islamic State.

I think new opportunities have arisen, ”says Kim Ghatas. "It will be difficult, but there is room for new thinking about America's role in the world and the Middle East.

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